JAX @ BAL

2026 Week 9 · Data through Week 8 (games before Week 9 only)

AwayHomeWeekThis week's games

Research context only. Opponent-adjusted Stage 1 ratings from game-projection-v1.2 (frozen parameters) with raw nflverse splits. Not a validated betting model and not a betting recommendation. No sportsbook data is used on this page.

game-projection-v1.2 research model

Game-model run Thu, Nov 5, 4:46 PM CT (manual: Refresh Projections button) · latest pre-kickoff projection · not a validated betting model

JAXAway · QB Trevor Lawrence

Projected points26.7

Possessions10.2

Plays62.9

Pass rate54.2%

BALHome · QB Joe Fagnano

Projected points13.7

Possessions10.2

Plays61.9

Pass rate61.0%

Top Matchup Edges

The largest rank differences already shown below (strong or moderate labels only). Not recommendations.

Top third for that unitMiddle thirdBottom third for that unitTendency (no good/bad)Rank 1 = best for that unit, oriented for offense vs defense (a low sack rate is good for an offense; a high one is good for a defense). Labels come only from the rank difference (≥16 strong, 8–15 moderate, under 8 even).

JAX Offense vs BAL Defense

BAL Offense vs JAX Defense

Overall Efficiency

Points per drive ⓘ▲ Moderate offensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

2.61 pts/drive5th

Season 2.88 | L4 2.78

68 drives

BAL Dadjusted

2.29 pts/drive18th

Season 2.39 | L4 2.49

85 drives

Points per drive ⓘ▼ Strong defensive advantage

BAL Oadjusted

2.07 pts/drive26th

Season 2.06 | L4 1.47

87 drives

JAX Dadjusted

1.89 pts/drive2nd

Season 1.56 | L4 1.74

71 drives

Early-down EPA/playEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

+0.055 EPA/play6th

Season +0.107 | L4 +0.105

336 plays

BAL Dadjusted

+0.000 EPA/play13th

Season −0.026 | L4 −0.008

388 plays

Early-down EPA/playEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

+0.050 EPA/play7th

Season +0.062 | L4 −0.166

383 plays

JAX Dadjusted

−0.011 EPA/play9th

Season −0.072 | L4 −0.113

337 plays

Third-down conversionEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

42.8%7th

Season 48.3% | L4 45.3%

87 3rd downs

BAL Dadjusted

40.6%12th

Season 40.0% | L4 42.6%

110 3rd downs

Third-down conversionEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

41.3%18th

Season 38.8% | L4 44.3%

103 3rd downs

JAX Dadjusted

41.5%15th

Season 40.0% | L4 44.4%

85 3rd downs

Red-zone TD rateEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

65.8%5th

Season 79.3% | L4 72.2%

29 RZ trips

BAL Dadjusted

61.9%11th

Season 67.7% | L4 73.3%

31 RZ trips

Red-zone TD rate▼ Moderate defensive advantage

BAL Oadjusted

62.3%18th

Season 63.3% | L4 41.7%

30 RZ trips

JAX Dadjusted

61.3%7th

Season 46.2% | L4 64.3%

26 RZ trips

Passing Matchup

EPA per dropback▲ Moderate offensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

+0.129 EPA/db7th

Season +0.266 | L4 +0.273

223 dropbacks

BAL Dadjusted

+0.066 EPA/db17th

Season +0.057 | L4 +0.127

303 dropbacks

EPA per dropbackEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

+0.076 EPA/db12th

Season +0.095 | L4 −0.115

269 dropbacks

JAX Dadjusted

+0.006 EPA/db9th

Season −0.050 | L4 −0.018

270 dropbacks

Dropback success rate▲ Moderate offensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

48.1%7th

Season 50.7% | L4 49.6%

223 dropbacks

BAL Dadjusted

45.5%17th

Season 45.9% | L4 46.9%

303 dropbacks

Dropback success rateEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

47.6%9th

Season 49.1% | L4 41.9%

269 dropbacks

JAX Dadjusted

45.4%15th

Season 45.2% | L4 44.2%

270 dropbacks

Explosive pass rate (20+)▲ Strong offensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

9.2%4th

Season 11.2% | L4 12.4%

223 dropbacks

BAL Dadjusted

8.3%22nd

Season 8.3% | L4 8.2%

303 dropbacks

Explosive pass rate (20+)Even matchup

BAL Oadjusted

8.0%17th

Season 7.4% | L4 4.1%

269 dropbacks

JAX Dadjusted

8.1%14th

Season 7.8% | L4 4.7%

270 dropbacks

Sack rate▲ Moderate offensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

6.1%12th

Season 5.8% | L4 6.6%

223 dropbacks

BAL Dadjusted

6.1%24th

Season 5.6% | L4 6.8%

303 dropbacks

Sack rateEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

7.5%27th

Season 8.2% | L4 10.1%

269 dropbacks

JAX Dadjusted

5.9%29th

Season 5.6% | L4 4.1%

270 dropbacks

Pressure rate ⓘ▲ Moderate offensive advantage

JAX Oraw (no adjusted rating)

21.2%14th

Season 21.2% | L4 21.3%

222 dropbacks

BAL Draw (no adjusted rating)

20.3%22nd

Season 20.3% | L4 20.5%

300 dropbacks

Pressure rate ⓘ▼ Moderate defensive advantage

BAL Oraw (no adjusted rating)

24.6%23rd

Season 24.6% | L4 28.6%

268 dropbacks

JAX Draw (no adjusted rating)

23.7%14th

Season 23.7% | L4 23.8%

270 dropbacks

Rushing Matchup

EPA per designed runEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

−0.051 EPA/run7th

Season −0.005 | L4 −0.062

192 runs

BAL Dadjusted

−0.092 EPA/run12th

Season −0.072 | L4 −0.111

199 runs

EPA per designed runEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

−0.062 EPA/run12th

Season −0.080 | L4 −0.137

211 runs

JAX Dadjusted

−0.107 EPA/run6th

Season −0.199 | L4 −0.274

143 runs

Rush success rateEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

41.1%13th

Season 42.7% | L4 37.3%

192 runs

BAL Dadjusted

39.8%11th

Season 41.2% | L4 42.1%

199 runs

Rush success rateEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

41.1%12th

Season 41.2% | L4 37.5%

211 runs

JAX Dadjusted

39.3%9th

Season 36.4% | L4 36.0%

143 runs

Explosive run rate (10+)▼ Moderate defensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

9.2%18th

Season 9.9% | L4 9.1%

192 runs

BAL Dadjusted

8.4%6th

Season 7.0% | L4 4.7%

199 runs

Explosive run rate (10+)▲ Moderate offensive advantage

BAL Oadjusted

10.8%3rd

Season 10.9% | L4 10.4%

211 runs

JAX Dadjusted

9.0%12th

Season 7.7% | L4 8.0%

143 runs

Run stuff rateEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

19.9%13th

Season 18.2% | L4 20.9%

192 runs

BAL Dadjusted

21.3%6th

Season 22.1% | L4 23.4%

199 runs

Run stuff rateEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

20.3%18th

Season 22.3% | L4 22.9%

211 runs

JAX Dadjusted

20.1%17th

Season 20.3% | L4 24.0%

143 runs

Tempo / Tendencies

Neutral PROE ⓘTendency

JAX Oadjusted

−1.9 pp23rd

Season −2.6 pp | L4 −3.7 pp

225 neutral plays

BAL Dadjusted

−0.5 pp11th

Season −0.5 pp | L4 −1.2 pp

231 neutral plays

Neutral PROE ⓘTendency

BAL Oadjusted

−0.8 pp18th

Season +0.5 pp | L4 +4.2 pp

245 neutral plays

JAX Dadjusted

+0.3 pp3rd

Season +3.8 pp | L4 +6.3 pp

190 neutral plays

Plays per driveEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

6.2 plays18th

Season 6.3 | L4 6.2

68 drives

BAL Dadjusted

6.2 plays14th

Season 6.1 | L4 6.0

85 drives

Plays per drive▼ Moderate defensive advantage

BAL Oadjusted

5.9 plays32nd

Season 5.5 | L4 5.5

87 drives

JAX Dadjusted

6.2 plays22nd

Season 6.1 | L4 6.0

71 drives

Neutral seconds per snap ⓘTendency

JAX Oadjusted

34.9 sec26th

Season 35.4 | L4 35.3

174 neutral snaps

BAL Dadjusted

34.1 sec8th

Season 32.8 | L4 33.1

182 neutral snaps

Neutral seconds per snap ⓘTendency

BAL Oadjusted

35.5 sec31st

Season 36.0 | L4 36.5

190 neutral snaps

JAX Dadjusted

34.0 sec4th

Season 33.3 | L4 33.6

142 neutral snaps

Turnovers per play ⓘ▲ Moderate offensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

1.8%16th

Season 1.2% | L4 1.2%

429 plays

BAL Dadjusted

1.7%26th

Season 1.6% | L4 1.2%

516 plays

Turnovers per play ⓘEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

1.7%9th

Season 1.7% | L4 2.6%

482 plays

JAX Dadjusted

1.8%13th

Season 2.8% | L4 2.3%

433 plays

JAX Offense vs BAL Defense

Overall Efficiency

Points per drive ⓘ▲ Moderate offensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

2.61 pts/drive5th

Season 2.88 | L4 2.78

68 drives

BAL Dadjusted

2.29 pts/drive18th

Season 2.39 | L4 2.49

85 drives

Early-down EPA/playEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

+0.055 EPA/play6th

Season +0.107 | L4 +0.105

336 plays

BAL Dadjusted

+0.000 EPA/play13th

Season −0.026 | L4 −0.008

388 plays

Third-down conversionEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

42.8%7th

Season 48.3% | L4 45.3%

87 3rd downs

BAL Dadjusted

40.6%12th

Season 40.0% | L4 42.6%

110 3rd downs

Red-zone TD rateEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

65.8%5th

Season 79.3% | L4 72.2%

29 RZ trips

BAL Dadjusted

61.9%11th

Season 67.7% | L4 73.3%

31 RZ trips

Passing Matchup

EPA per dropback▲ Moderate offensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

+0.129 EPA/db7th

Season +0.266 | L4 +0.273

223 dropbacks

BAL Dadjusted

+0.066 EPA/db17th

Season +0.057 | L4 +0.127

303 dropbacks

Dropback success rate▲ Moderate offensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

48.1%7th

Season 50.7% | L4 49.6%

223 dropbacks

BAL Dadjusted

45.5%17th

Season 45.9% | L4 46.9%

303 dropbacks

Explosive pass rate (20+)▲ Strong offensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

9.2%4th

Season 11.2% | L4 12.4%

223 dropbacks

BAL Dadjusted

8.3%22nd

Season 8.3% | L4 8.2%

303 dropbacks

Sack rate▲ Moderate offensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

6.1%12th

Season 5.8% | L4 6.6%

223 dropbacks

BAL Dadjusted

6.1%24th

Season 5.6% | L4 6.8%

303 dropbacks

Pressure rate ⓘ▲ Moderate offensive advantage

JAX Oraw (no adjusted rating)

21.2%14th

Season 21.2% | L4 21.3%

222 dropbacks

BAL Draw (no adjusted rating)

20.3%22nd

Season 20.3% | L4 20.5%

300 dropbacks

Rushing Matchup

EPA per designed runEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

−0.051 EPA/run7th

Season −0.005 | L4 −0.062

192 runs

BAL Dadjusted

−0.092 EPA/run12th

Season −0.072 | L4 −0.111

199 runs

Rush success rateEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

41.1%13th

Season 42.7% | L4 37.3%

192 runs

BAL Dadjusted

39.8%11th

Season 41.2% | L4 42.1%

199 runs

Explosive run rate (10+)▼ Moderate defensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

9.2%18th

Season 9.9% | L4 9.1%

192 runs

BAL Dadjusted

8.4%6th

Season 7.0% | L4 4.7%

199 runs

Run stuff rateEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

19.9%13th

Season 18.2% | L4 20.9%

192 runs

BAL Dadjusted

21.3%6th

Season 22.1% | L4 23.4%

199 runs

Tempo / Tendencies

Neutral PROE ⓘTendency

JAX Oadjusted

−1.9 pp23rd

Season −2.6 pp | L4 −3.7 pp

225 neutral plays

BAL Dadjusted

−0.5 pp11th

Season −0.5 pp | L4 −1.2 pp

231 neutral plays

Plays per driveEven matchup

JAX Oadjusted

6.2 plays18th

Season 6.3 | L4 6.2

68 drives

BAL Dadjusted

6.2 plays14th

Season 6.1 | L4 6.0

85 drives

Neutral seconds per snap ⓘTendency

JAX Oadjusted

34.9 sec26th

Season 35.4 | L4 35.3

174 neutral snaps

BAL Dadjusted

34.1 sec8th

Season 32.8 | L4 33.1

182 neutral snaps

Turnovers per play ⓘ▲ Moderate offensive advantage

JAX Oadjusted

1.8%16th

Season 1.2% | L4 1.2%

429 plays

BAL Dadjusted

1.7%26th

Season 1.6% | L4 1.2%

516 plays

BAL Offense vs JAX Defense

Overall Efficiency

Points per drive ⓘ▼ Strong defensive advantage

BAL Oadjusted

2.07 pts/drive26th

Season 2.06 | L4 1.47

87 drives

JAX Dadjusted

1.89 pts/drive2nd

Season 1.56 | L4 1.74

71 drives

Early-down EPA/playEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

+0.050 EPA/play7th

Season +0.062 | L4 −0.166

383 plays

JAX Dadjusted

−0.011 EPA/play9th

Season −0.072 | L4 −0.113

337 plays

Third-down conversionEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

41.3%18th

Season 38.8% | L4 44.3%

103 3rd downs

JAX Dadjusted

41.5%15th

Season 40.0% | L4 44.4%

85 3rd downs

Red-zone TD rate▼ Moderate defensive advantage

BAL Oadjusted

62.3%18th

Season 63.3% | L4 41.7%

30 RZ trips

JAX Dadjusted

61.3%7th

Season 46.2% | L4 64.3%

26 RZ trips

Passing Matchup

EPA per dropbackEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

+0.076 EPA/db12th

Season +0.095 | L4 −0.115

269 dropbacks

JAX Dadjusted

+0.006 EPA/db9th

Season −0.050 | L4 −0.018

270 dropbacks

Dropback success rateEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

47.6%9th

Season 49.1% | L4 41.9%

269 dropbacks

JAX Dadjusted

45.4%15th

Season 45.2% | L4 44.2%

270 dropbacks

Explosive pass rate (20+)Even matchup

BAL Oadjusted

8.0%17th

Season 7.4% | L4 4.1%

269 dropbacks

JAX Dadjusted

8.1%14th

Season 7.8% | L4 4.7%

270 dropbacks

Sack rateEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

7.5%27th

Season 8.2% | L4 10.1%

269 dropbacks

JAX Dadjusted

5.9%29th

Season 5.6% | L4 4.1%

270 dropbacks

Pressure rate ⓘ▼ Moderate defensive advantage

BAL Oraw (no adjusted rating)

24.6%23rd

Season 24.6% | L4 28.6%

268 dropbacks

JAX Draw (no adjusted rating)

23.7%14th

Season 23.7% | L4 23.8%

270 dropbacks

Rushing Matchup

EPA per designed runEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

−0.062 EPA/run12th

Season −0.080 | L4 −0.137

211 runs

JAX Dadjusted

−0.107 EPA/run6th

Season −0.199 | L4 −0.274

143 runs

Rush success rateEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

41.1%12th

Season 41.2% | L4 37.5%

211 runs

JAX Dadjusted

39.3%9th

Season 36.4% | L4 36.0%

143 runs

Explosive run rate (10+)▲ Moderate offensive advantage

BAL Oadjusted

10.8%3rd

Season 10.9% | L4 10.4%

211 runs

JAX Dadjusted

9.0%12th

Season 7.7% | L4 8.0%

143 runs

Run stuff rateEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

20.3%18th

Season 22.3% | L4 22.9%

211 runs

JAX Dadjusted

20.1%17th

Season 20.3% | L4 24.0%

143 runs

Tempo / Tendencies

Neutral PROE ⓘTendency

BAL Oadjusted

−0.8 pp18th

Season +0.5 pp | L4 +4.2 pp

245 neutral plays

JAX Dadjusted

+0.3 pp3rd

Season +3.8 pp | L4 +6.3 pp

190 neutral plays

Plays per drive▼ Moderate defensive advantage

BAL Oadjusted

5.9 plays32nd

Season 5.5 | L4 5.5

87 drives

JAX Dadjusted

6.2 plays22nd

Season 6.1 | L4 6.0

71 drives

Neutral seconds per snap ⓘTendency

BAL Oadjusted

35.5 sec31st

Season 36.0 | L4 36.5

190 neutral snaps

JAX Dadjusted

34.0 sec4th

Season 33.3 | L4 33.6

142 neutral snaps

Turnovers per play ⓘEven matchup

BAL Oadjusted

1.7%9th

Season 1.7% | L4 2.6%

482 plays

JAX Dadjusted

1.8%13th

Season 2.8% | L4 2.3%

433 plays

Injury details by unit (stored game-projection-v1.2 injury log for this projection)

JAX

Offense

OTexpected missing share 46%

Anton Harrisonnot listed, missed last game21% to play

RBexpected missing share 30%

Bhayshul TutenQuestionableDNP49% to play

IOLexpected missing share 3%

Ezra ClevelandLimited96% to play

WRexpected missing share 3%

Jakobi MeyersLimited96% to play

Defense

EDGEexpected missing share 22%

Travon WalkerQuestionableLimited70% to play

Sexpected missing share 16%

Eric MurrayDNP86% to play
Antonio JohnsonLimited96% to play

IDLexpected missing share 5%

DaVon HamiltonDNP86% to play

CBexpected missing share 3%

Jarrian JonesLimited96% to play

BAL

Offense

OTexpected missing share 78%

Ronnie StanleyFull96% to play
Roger RosengartenFull96% to play
Emery Jonesnot listed, missed last game21% to play

IOLexpected missing share 7%

John SimpsonFull96% to play
Olaivavega IoaneFull96% to play

TEexpected missing share 4%

Mark AndrewsFull96% to play
Matthew HibnerFull96% to play

RBexpected missing share 2%

Justice HillFull96% to play

Defense

Sexpected missing share 87%

Jaylinn HawkinsOutDNP0% to play

CBexpected missing share 45%

Nate WigginsQuestionableDNP49% to play

LBexpected missing share 45%

Trey HendricksonFull96% to play
Roquan SmithFull96% to play
Tavius Robinsonnot listed, missed last game21% to play

EDGEexpected missing share 2%

Calais CampbellFull96% to play

Games used (season-to-date and last 4, 2026, before Week 9)

JAX

Season: W1 vs CLE, W2 @ DEN, W3 vs NE, W4 @ CIN, W5 vs PHI, W6 vs HOU, W8 vs IND

Last 4: W4 @ CIN, W5 vs PHI, W6 vs HOU, W8 vs IND

BAL

Season: W1 @ IND, W2 vs NO, W3 @ DAL, W4 vs TEN, W5 @ ATL, W6 @ CLE, W7 vs CIN, W8 @ BUF

Last 4: W5 @ ATL, W6 @ CLE, W7 vs CIN, W8 @ BUF

Adjusted ratings also use the two prior seasons at the frozen season weights and recency half-life (same fit as the game model's Stage 1). Defense raw values are what opponents did against that defense in these games. Pressure rate has no opponent-adjusted rating, so its rank is raw. Neutral PROE uses the frozen Stage 3 rating parameters without the coach/QB-change continuity scaling.