Results

What this page shows

Research models, not validated betting models. Each record grades the exact pregame decisions the live board saved, at the frozen line and odds, 1 unit per play. The Official Record is the betting record: Receiving Bet Qualified (frozen at save), Passing Candidates (shown as Bet Qualified). Rushing rb-rushing-v1.8.1 has no validated Bet Qualified plays yet; its saved Projection Signals are research. Projection Signals, Reviews, shortlist studies, accuracy and superseded versions are research only.

Grading and ROI

A play wins or loses at its frozen line; a push returns the stake; an inactive player is void; plays stay pending until the game is final and the player stat is recorded. Units: +odds/100 (or +100/|odds|) for a win, −1 for a loss, 0 for a push or void. ROI = units ÷ graded plays (wins, losses and pushes).

Expected wins = sum of the frozen model win probabilities of graded plays (when stored for that exact quote). Brier = mean squared error of the model probability against the result (lower is better; pushes excluded). Average EV / 1u uses the EV frozen at save.

Retrospective Bet Qualified: for saves made before the frozen designation began, the same rule applied after the fact to the EV frozen at save time. Shown automatically for those weeks and always labelled Retrospective; it is a historical comparison, not a prospective record.