Research model, not a validated betting model. Scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities come from game-projection-v1.2 using football data only (nflverse play-by-play, injuries, starters, weather). Sportsbook lines are compared afterward and are never inputs. The official projection for each game is the latest one made before kickoff; it is locked at kickoff and graded. Prospective tracking started 2026 Week 7.

2026 Week 9 game projections

15 games · 15 with a projection · loaded Fri, Nov 6, 5:38 PM CT

Sportsbook lines: updated Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT

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Last model update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:46 PM CT 1 d ago
Last sportsbook line update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT 1 d ago

Games

15 games
MatchupSpreadTotalWinConfidence
GameProjected scoreFairMarketEdgeCover %FairMarketEdgeO/U %Win %MoneylineReliabilityStatus
Sun, Nov 8, 7:20 PM CT
TB 21.9CHI 23.4
CHI -2.17CHI -6
48 books
TB +3.865.7%
TB +6
market 50.0%
44.547.5Under 3.0 pts58.8%
Under 47.5
market 49.9%
CHI54.2%
TB45.2%
tie 0.5%
CHI -238
TB +251
CHI no-vig 70.3%
MEDIUM
TB: some availability uncertainty across regular players
Latest pre-kickoff
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
NYJ 20.0KC 25.9
KC -5.59KC -10
50 books
NYJ +4.465.6%
NYJ +10
market 50.0%
45.247.5Under 2.3 pts56.7%
Under 47.5
market 50.2%
KC68.7%
NYJ30.8%
tie 0.4%
KC -435
NYJ +430
KC no-vig 80.0%
LOW
KC: high availability uncertainty across regular players
Latest pre-kickoff
Sun, Nov 8, 8:30 AM CT
CIN 26.0ATL 22.8
CIN -3.24CIN -3
50 books
CIN +0.251.7%
CIN -3
market 51.1%
48.452.5Under 4.1 pts62.0%
Under 52.5
market 49.8%
CIN60.1%
ATL39.5%
tie 0.4%
ATL +156
CIN -156
ATL no-vig 39.6%
HIGH
CIN: coverage prior comes from last season
Latest pre-kickoff
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
DET 27.4MIA 22.6
DET -4.53DET -7
50 books
MIA +2.560.6%
MIA +7
market 50.0%
49.550.5Under 1.0 pts52.4%
Under 50.5
market 50.0%
DET65.7%
MIA33.8%
tie 0.5%
MIA +292
DET -294
MIA no-vig 26.5%
MEDIUM
DET: some availability uncertainty across regular players
Latest pre-kickoff
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
DEN 25.8CAR 22.1
DEN -3.46DEN -2.5
50 books
DEN +1.056.6%
DEN -2.5
market 51.4%
47.344Over 3.3 pts60.0%
Over 44
market 50.0%
DEN61.7%
CAR37.8%
tie 0.5%
CAR +130
DEN -132
CAR no-vig 42.9%
MEDIUM
DEN: high availability uncertainty across regular players
Latest pre-kickoff
Sun, Nov 8, 3:05 PM CT
LV 21.9SF 29.6
SF -6.85SF -9.5
49 books
LV +2.757.6%
LV +9.5
market 49.2%
50.952Under 1.1 pts53.4%
Under 52
market 50.0%
SF74.8%
LV24.8%
tie 0.4%
SF -405
LV +400
SF no-vig 79.2%
HIGH
LV: coverage prior comes from last season
Latest pre-kickoff
Mon, Nov 9, 7:15 PM CT
BUF 25.8MIN 22.0
BUF -3.54BUF -3
48 books
BUF +0.553.7%
BUF -3
market 51.3%
47.244.5Over 2.7 pts57.8%
Over 44.5
market 50.0%
BUF61.7%
MIN37.9%
tie 0.4%
MIN +163
BUF -156
MIN no-vig 38.9%
MEDIUM
MIN: some availability uncertainty across regular players
Latest pre-kickoff
Sun, Nov 8, 3:25 PM CT
GB 21.1NE 22.1
NE -1.71NE -3
49 books
GB +1.356.0%
GB +3
market 48.9%
42.845Under 2.2 pts57.7%
Under 45
market 50.0%
NE53.3%
GB46.1%
tie 0.7%
NE -159
GB +158
NE no-vig 60.4%
MEDIUM
GB: some availability uncertainty across regular players
Latest pre-kickoff
Sun, Nov 8, 3:05 PM CT
HOU 22.3LAC 18.9
HOU -3.35HOU -5.5
49 books
LAC +2.157.5%
LAC +5.5
market 50.0%
40.640.5Over 0.1 pts50.4%
Over 40.5
market 50.0%
HOU61.2%
LAC38.3%
tie 0.5%
LAC +215
HOU -217
LAC no-vig 31.8%
MEDIUM
HOU: some availability uncertainty across regular players
Latest pre-kickoff
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
DAL 29.4IND 25.5
DAL -3.64DAL -5.5
50 books
IND +1.955.8%
IND +5.5
market 50.1%
54.451.5Over 2.9 pts57.3%
Over 51.5
market 50.0%
DAL62.0%
IND37.6%
tie 0.4%
IND +220
DAL -222
IND no-vig 32.0%
MEDIUM
DAL: high availability uncertainty across regular players
Latest pre-kickoff
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
CLE 18.6NO 23.8
NO -5.03NO -3
49 books
NO +2.058.2%
NO -3
market 51.1%
41.942.5Under 0.6 pts51.1%
Under 42.5
market 50.0%
NO65.5%
CLE34.1%
tie 0.4%
NO -150
CLE +152
NO no-vig 59.9%
MEDIUM
CLE: some availability uncertainty across regular players
Latest pre-kickoff
Thu, Nov 5, 7:15 PM CT
JAX 26.4BAL 15.4
Final JAX 33 – BAL 10
JAX -10.36JAX -9.5
50 books
JAX +0.953.5%
JAX -9.5
market 50.7%
41.139.5Over 1.6 pts55.6%
Over 39.5
market 50.0%
JAX81.8%
BAL17.9%
tie 0.4%
BAL +420
JAX -395
BAL no-vig 20.2%
LOW
JAX: high availability uncertainty across regular players
Official · locked · final
Sun, Nov 8, 3:25 PM CT
ARI 17.0SEA 24.5
SEA -6.85SEA -8.5
49 books
ARI +1.755.6%
ARI +8.5
market 50.0%
40.839.5Over 1.3 pts54.6%
Over 39.5
market 50.2%
SEA74.1%
ARI25.5%
tie 0.5%
SEA -365
ARI +360
SEA no-vig 77.3%
LOW
SEA: high availability uncertainty across regular players
Latest pre-kickoff
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
LA 25.9WAS 21.9
LA -3.78LA -4.5
50 books
WAS +0.752.3%
WAS +4.5
market 49.9%
47.248.5Under 1.3 pts53.5%
Under 48.5
market 50.0%
LA63.1%
WAS36.4%
tie 0.5%
WAS +200
LA -196
WAS no-vig 33.3%
LOW
LA: high availability uncertainty across regular players
Latest pre-kickoff
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
NYG 20.8PHI 18.2
NYG -2.94NYG -3
49 books
PHI +0.150.4%
PHI +3
market 48.3%
38.338.5Under 0.2 pts50.5%
Under 38.5
market 50.0%
NYG57.5%
PHI41.8%
tie 0.6%
PHI +163
NYG -159
PHI no-vig 39.4%
LOW
PHI: high availability uncertainty across regular players
Latest pre-kickoff

  1. TB @ CHI

    Sun, Nov 8, 7:20 PM CT
    MEDIUM
    Projected TB 21.9 · CHI 23.4

    Spread

    Model CHI -2.17
    Market CHI -6
    Edge TB +3.8
    Cover 65.7% TB +6

    Total

    Fair 44.5
    Market 47.5
    Under 47.5 58.8%
    Edge Under 3.0 pts
    Win CHI 54.2% · TB 45.2%

  2. NYJ @ KC

    Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
    LOW
    Projected NYJ 20.0 · KC 25.9

    Spread

    Model KC -5.59
    Market KC -10
    Edge NYJ +4.4
    Cover 65.6% NYJ +10

    Total

    Fair 45.2
    Market 47.5
    Under 47.5 56.7%
    Edge Under 2.3 pts
    Win KC 68.7% · NYJ 30.8%

  3. CIN @ ATL

    Sun, Nov 8, 8:30 AM CT
    HIGH
    Projected CIN 26.0 · ATL 22.8

    Spread

    Model CIN -3.24
    Market CIN -3
    Edge CIN +0.2
    Cover 51.7% CIN -3

    Total

    Fair 48.4
    Market 52.5
    Under 52.5 62.0%
    Edge Under 4.1 pts
    Win CIN 60.1% · ATL 39.5%

  4. DET @ MIA

    Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
    MEDIUM
    Projected DET 27.4 · MIA 22.6

    Spread

    Model DET -4.53
    Market DET -7
    Edge MIA +2.5
    Cover 60.6% MIA +7

    Total

    Fair 49.5
    Market 50.5
    Under 50.5 52.4%
    Edge Under 1.0 pts
    Win DET 65.7% · MIA 33.8%

  5. DEN @ CAR

    Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
    MEDIUM
    Projected DEN 25.8 · CAR 22.1

    Spread

    Model DEN -3.46
    Market DEN -2.5
    Edge DEN +1.0
    Cover 56.6% DEN -2.5

    Total

    Fair 47.3
    Market 44
    Over 44 60.0%
    Edge Over 3.3 pts
    Win DEN 61.7% · CAR 37.8%

  6. LV @ SF

    Sun, Nov 8, 3:05 PM CT
    HIGH
    Projected LV 21.9 · SF 29.6

    Spread

    Model SF -6.85
    Market SF -9.5
    Edge LV +2.7
    Cover 57.6% LV +9.5

    Total

    Fair 50.9
    Market 52
    Under 52 53.4%
    Edge Under 1.1 pts
    Win SF 74.8% · LV 24.8%

  7. BUF @ MIN

    Mon, Nov 9, 7:15 PM CT
    MEDIUM
    Projected BUF 25.8 · MIN 22.0

    Spread

    Model BUF -3.54
    Market BUF -3
    Edge BUF +0.5
    Cover 53.7% BUF -3

    Total

    Fair 47.2
    Market 44.5
    Over 44.5 57.8%
    Edge Over 2.7 pts
    Win BUF 61.7% · MIN 37.9%

  8. GB @ NE

    Sun, Nov 8, 3:25 PM CT
    MEDIUM
    Projected GB 21.1 · NE 22.1

    Spread

    Model NE -1.71
    Market NE -3
    Edge GB +1.3
    Cover 56.0% GB +3

    Total

    Fair 42.8
    Market 45
    Under 45 57.7%
    Edge Under 2.2 pts
    Win NE 53.3% · GB 46.1%

  9. HOU @ LAC

    Sun, Nov 8, 3:05 PM CT
    MEDIUM
    Projected HOU 22.3 · LAC 18.9

    Spread

    Model HOU -3.35
    Market HOU -5.5
    Edge LAC +2.1
    Cover 57.5% LAC +5.5

    Total

    Fair 40.6
    Market 40.5
    Over 40.5 50.4%
    Edge Over 0.1 pts
    Win HOU 61.2% · LAC 38.3%

  10. DAL @ IND

    Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
    MEDIUM
    Projected DAL 29.4 · IND 25.5

    Spread

    Model DAL -3.64
    Market DAL -5.5
    Edge IND +1.9
    Cover 55.8% IND +5.5

    Total

    Fair 54.4
    Market 51.5
    Over 51.5 57.3%
    Edge Over 2.9 pts
    Win DAL 62.0% · IND 37.6%

  11. CLE @ NO

    Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
    MEDIUM
    Projected CLE 18.6 · NO 23.8

    Spread

    Model NO -5.03
    Market NO -3
    Edge NO +2.0
    Cover 58.2% NO -3

    Total

    Fair 41.9
    Market 42.5
    Under 42.5 51.1%
    Edge Under 0.6 pts
    Win NO 65.5% · CLE 34.1%

  12. JAX @ BAL

    Thu, Nov 5, 7:15 PM CT
    LOW
    Projected JAX 26.4 · BAL 15.4 · Final JAX 33 – BAL 10

    Spread

    Model JAX -10.36
    Market JAX -9.5
    Edge JAX +0.9
    Cover 53.5% JAX -9.5

    Total

    Fair 41.1
    Market 39.5
    Over 39.5 55.6%
    Edge Over 1.6 pts
    Win JAX 81.8% · BAL 17.9%

  13. ARI @ SEA

    Sun, Nov 8, 3:25 PM CT
    LOW
    Projected ARI 17.0 · SEA 24.5

    Spread

    Model SEA -6.85
    Market SEA -8.5
    Edge ARI +1.7
    Cover 55.6% ARI +8.5

    Total

    Fair 40.8
    Market 39.5
    Over 39.5 54.6%
    Edge Over 1.3 pts
    Win SEA 74.1% · ARI 25.5%

  14. LA @ WAS

    Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
    LOW
    Projected LA 25.9 · WAS 21.9

    Spread

    Model LA -3.78
    Market LA -4.5
    Edge WAS +0.7
    Cover 52.3% WAS +4.5

    Total

    Fair 47.2
    Market 48.5
    Under 48.5 53.5%
    Edge Under 1.3 pts
    Win LA 63.1% · WAS 36.4%

  15. NYG @ PHI

    Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 PM CT
    LOW
    Projected NYG 20.8 · PHI 18.2

    Spread

    Model NYG -2.94
    Market NYG -3
    Edge PHI +0.1
    Cover 50.4% PHI +3

    Total

    Fair 38.3
    Market 38.5
    Under 38.5 50.5%
    Edge Under 0.2 pts
    Win NYG 57.5% · PHI 41.8%

Edge = the gap between the model's fair line and the market consensus, shown toward the side the model rates higher than the market does (calculation unchanged). Model cover % and Model O/U % are the model's probabilities for the side it prefers at the market line (pushes excluded), next to the market's no-vig probability. Green = spread edge and cover probability (brighter as it grows: 2–4, 4–6, 6+ pts; 53–56%, 56–60%, 60%+); teal = Over, light blue = Under; gray = market reference values. Win probability includes the simulated tie; the moneyline comparison excludes ties because books refund them. Theoretical EV is in each game's expanded view only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation.