Research model, not a validated betting model. Scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities come from game-projection-v1.2 using football data only (nflverse play-by-play, injuries, starters, weather). Sportsbook lines are compared afterward and are never inputs. The official projection for each game is the latest one made before kickoff; it is locked at kickoff and graded. Prospective tracking started 2026 Week 7.

2026 Week 8 game projections

14 games · 14 with a projection · loaded Sat, Nov 7, 10:59 AM CT

Sportsbook lines: updated Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT

← Week 7 Week 9 →

Last model update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:46 PM CT 2 d ago

Last sportsbook line update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT 2 d ago

Matchup		Spread				Total				Win		Confidence
Game	Projected score	Fair	Market	Edge	Cover %	Fair	Market	Edge	O/U %	Win %	Moneyline	Reliability	Status
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT	IND 21.3JAX 25.4 Final IND 7 – JAX 42	JAX -3.95	JAX -10 48 books	IND +6.0	70.4% IND +10 market 50.0%	46.4	46.5	Under 0.1 pts	50.3% Under 46.5 market 50.0%	JAX63.2% IND36.3% tie 0.5%	JAX -435 IND +455 JAX no-vig 80.0%	MEDIUM IND: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT	MIN 23.4DET 22.0 Final MIN 15 – DET 19	MIN -2.24	DET -3.5 48 books	MIN +5.7	65.8% MIN +3.5 market 51.7%	44.7	45.5	Under 0.8 pts	52.3% Under 45.5 market 49.5%	MIN54.3% DET45.3% tie 0.4%	DET -167 MIN +164 DET no-vig 61.7%	LOW MIN: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT	TEN 18.5CIN 27.2 Final TEN 36 – CIN 43	CIN -7.49	CIN -12.5 48 books	TEN +5.0	63.0% TEN +12.5 market 49.9%	45.2	46	Under 0.8 pts	52.2% Under 46 market 50.0%	CIN76.5% TEN23.1% tie 0.4%	CIN -667 TEN +660 CIN no-vig 85.7%	MEDIUM TEN: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT	LV 24.6NYJ 22.2 Final LV 38 – NYJ 33	LV -2.83	NYJ -1.5 48 books	LV +4.3	61.1% LV +1.5 market 49.9%	46.3	46.5	Under 0.3 pts	50.6% Under 46.5 market 50.5%	LV58.0% NYJ41.5% tie 0.5%	NYJ -117 LV +116 NYJ no-vig 53.2%	MEDIUM LV: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT	ATL 19.8TB 20.2 Final ATL 0 – TB 16	TB -0.82	TB -2.5 48 books	ATL +1.7	54.1% ATL +2.5 market 51.1%	39.5	43.5	Under 4.0 pts	62.6% Under 43.5 market 51.2%	TB50.9% ATL48.6% tie 0.6%	TB -120 ATL +118 TB no-vig 54.3%	MEDIUM ATL: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Nov 1, 3:05 PM CT	LAC 18.3LA 24.7 Final LAC 9 – LA 24	LA -6.13	LA -6.5 47 books	LAC +0.4	51.4% LAC +6.5 market 50.0%	42.7	45.5	Under 2.8 pts	59.5% Under 45.5 market 50.0%	LA70.0% LAC29.6% tie 0.4%	LA -263 LAC +264 LA no-vig 71.0%	LOW LAC: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Thu, Oct 29, 7:15 PM CT	CAR 22.9GB 24.3 Final CAR 19 – GB 27	GB -2.1	GB -3.5 47 books	CAR +1.4	57.8% CAR +3.5 market 50.0%	46.6	47	Under 0.4 pts	51.5% Under 47 market 49.7%	GB54.1% CAR45.4% tie 0.5%	GB -174 CAR +175 GB no-vig 63.6%	MEDIUM GB: 2 offensive line starters out	Official · locked · final
Sun, Nov 1, 3:25 PM CT	KC 23.0DEN 20.6 Final KC 24 – DEN 28	KC -2.88	KC -1 45 books	KC +1.9	56.7% KC -1 market 50.0%	43.1	41.5	Over 1.6 pts	54.1% Over 41.5 market 49.0%	KC57.8% DEN41.7% tie 0.4%	DEN +110 KC -105 DEN no-vig 48.9%	MEDIUM KC: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT	CLE 19.4PIT 21.5 Final CLE 6 – PIT 27	PIT -2.68	PIT -3.5 48 books	CLE +0.8	55.6% CLE +3.5 market 50.3%	40.3	39	Over 1.3 pts	54.0% Over 39 market 50.0%	PIT56.4% CLE43.1% tie 0.5%	PIT -179 CLE +180 PIT no-vig 63.6%	MEDIUM CLE: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT	ARI 23.3DAL 29.5 Final ARI 33 – DAL 30	DAL -5.77	DAL -7 48 books	ARI +1.2	56.0% ARI +7 market 50.0%	52.1	54.5	Under 2.4 pts	56.4% Under 54.5 market 50.0%	DAL69.5% ARI30.1% tie 0.3%	DAL -292 ARI +285 DAL no-vig 73.5%	LOW ARI: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Nov 1, 7:20 PM CT	PHI 16.8WAS 25.4 Final PHI 10 – WAS 27	WAS -7.52	WAS -6.5 47 books	WAS +1.0	55.2% WAS -6.5 market 49.7%	41.4	40.5	Over 0.9 pts	53.3% Over 40.5 market 49.6%	WAS75.0% PHI24.6% tie 0.4%	WAS -239 PHI +268 WAS no-vig 70.1%	MEDIUM PHI: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Mon, Nov 2, 7:15 PM CT	CHI 21.9SEA 23.4 Final CHI 34 – SEA 17	SEA -2.48	SEA -3 46 books	CHI +0.5	53.8% CHI +3 market 48.9%	44.5	46.5	Under 2.0 pts	55.1% Under 46.5 market 50.0%	SEA55.1% CHI44.4% tie 0.6%	SEA -156 CHI +154 SEA no-vig 60.8%	LOW SEA: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT	BAL 27.0BUF 29.7 Final BAL 10 – BUF 36	BUF -3	BUF -3.5 48 books	BAL +0.5	53.6% BAL +3.5 market 52.2%	56.3	54.5	Over 1.8 pts	54.5% Over 54.5 market 50.0%	BUF59.2% BAL40.3% tie 0.5%	BUF -160 BAL +158 BUF no-vig 61.1%	MEDIUM BAL: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Nov 1, 3:25 PM CT	NE 24.4MIA 17.9 Final NE 24 – MIA 19	NE -6.23	NE -7 47 books	MIA +0.8	54.2% MIA +7 market 50.6%	41.7	42.5	Under 0.8 pts	51.6% Under 42.5 market 50.1%	NE71.5% MIA28.0% tie 0.5%	MIA +310 NE -312 MIA no-vig 25.3%	LOW MIA: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final

IND @ JAX
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected IND 21.3 · JAX 25.4 · Final IND 7 – JAX 42
Spread
Model JAX -3.95
Market JAX -10
Edge IND +6.0
Cover 70.4% IND +10
Total
Fair 46.4
Market 46.5
Under 46.5 50.3%
Edge Under 0.1 pts
Win JAX 63.2% · IND 36.3%
MIN @ DET
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT
LOW
Projected MIN 23.4 · DET 22.0 · Final MIN 15 – DET 19
Spread
Model MIN -2.24
Market DET -3.5
Edge MIN +5.7
Cover 65.8% MIN +3.5
Total
Fair 44.7
Market 45.5
Under 45.5 52.3%
Edge Under 0.8 pts
Win MIN 54.3% · DET 45.3%
TEN @ CIN
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected TEN 18.5 · CIN 27.2 · Final TEN 36 – CIN 43
Spread
Model CIN -7.49
Market CIN -12.5
Edge TEN +5.0
Cover 63.0% TEN +12.5
Total
Fair 45.2
Market 46
Under 46 52.2%
Edge Under 0.8 pts
Win CIN 76.5% · TEN 23.1%
LV @ NYJ
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected LV 24.6 · NYJ 22.2 · Final LV 38 – NYJ 33
Spread
Model LV -2.83
Market NYJ -1.5
Edge LV +4.3
Cover 61.1% LV +1.5
Total
Fair 46.3
Market 46.5
Under 46.5 50.6%
Edge Under 0.3 pts
Win LV 58.0% · NYJ 41.5%
ATL @ TB
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected ATL 19.8 · TB 20.2 · Final ATL 0 – TB 16
Spread
Model TB -0.82
Market TB -2.5
Edge ATL +1.7
Cover 54.1% ATL +2.5
Total
Fair 39.5
Market 43.5
Under 43.5 62.6%
Edge Under 4.0 pts
Win TB 50.9% · ATL 48.6%
LAC @ LA
Sun, Nov 1, 3:05 PM CT
LOW
Projected LAC 18.3 · LA 24.7 · Final LAC 9 – LA 24
Spread
Model LA -6.13
Market LA -6.5
Edge LAC +0.4
Cover 51.4% LAC +6.5
Total
Fair 42.7
Market 45.5
Under 45.5 59.5%
Edge Under 2.8 pts
Win LA 70.0% · LAC 29.6%
CAR @ GB
Thu, Oct 29, 7:15 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected CAR 22.9 · GB 24.3 · Final CAR 19 – GB 27
Spread
Model GB -2.1
Market GB -3.5
Edge CAR +1.4
Cover 57.8% CAR +3.5
Total
Fair 46.6
Market 47
Under 47 51.5%
Edge Under 0.4 pts
Win GB 54.1% · CAR 45.4%
KC @ DEN
Sun, Nov 1, 3:25 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected KC 23.0 · DEN 20.6 · Final KC 24 – DEN 28
Spread
Model KC -2.88
Market KC -1
Edge KC +1.9
Cover 56.7% KC -1
Total
Fair 43.1
Market 41.5
Over 41.5 54.1%
Edge Over 1.6 pts
Win KC 57.8% · DEN 41.7%
CLE @ PIT
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected CLE 19.4 · PIT 21.5 · Final CLE 6 – PIT 27
Spread
Model PIT -2.68
Market PIT -3.5
Edge CLE +0.8
Cover 55.6% CLE +3.5
Total
Fair 40.3
Market 39
Over 39 54.0%
Edge Over 1.3 pts
Win PIT 56.4% · CLE 43.1%
ARI @ DAL
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT
LOW
Projected ARI 23.3 · DAL 29.5 · Final ARI 33 – DAL 30
Spread
Model DAL -5.77
Market DAL -7
Edge ARI +1.2
Cover 56.0% ARI +7
Total
Fair 52.1
Market 54.5
Under 54.5 56.4%
Edge Under 2.4 pts
Win DAL 69.5% · ARI 30.1%
PHI @ WAS
Sun, Nov 1, 7:20 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected PHI 16.8 · WAS 25.4 · Final PHI 10 – WAS 27
Spread
Model WAS -7.52
Market WAS -6.5
Edge WAS +1.0
Cover 55.2% WAS -6.5
Total
Fair 41.4
Market 40.5
Over 40.5 53.3%
Edge Over 0.9 pts
Win WAS 75.0% · PHI 24.6%
CHI @ SEA
Mon, Nov 2, 7:15 PM CT
LOW
Projected CHI 21.9 · SEA 23.4 · Final CHI 34 – SEA 17
Spread
Model SEA -2.48
Market SEA -3
Edge CHI +0.5
Cover 53.8% CHI +3
Total
Fair 44.5
Market 46.5
Under 46.5 55.1%
Edge Under 2.0 pts
Win SEA 55.1% · CHI 44.4%
BAL @ BUF
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected BAL 27.0 · BUF 29.7 · Final BAL 10 – BUF 36
Spread
Model BUF -3
Market BUF -3.5
Edge BAL +0.5
Cover 53.6% BAL +3.5
Total
Fair 56.3
Market 54.5
Over 54.5 54.5%
Edge Over 1.8 pts
Win BUF 59.2% · BAL 40.3%
NE @ MIA
Sun, Nov 1, 3:25 PM CT
LOW
Projected NE 24.4 · MIA 17.9 · Final NE 24 – MIA 19
Spread
Model NE -6.23
Market NE -7
Edge MIA +0.8
Cover 54.2% MIA +7
Total
Fair 41.7
Market 42.5
Under 42.5 51.6%
Edge Under 0.8 pts
Win NE 71.5% · MIA 28.0%

Edge = the gap between the model's fair line and the market consensus, shown toward the side the model rates higher than the market does (calculation unchanged). Model cover % and Model O/U % are the model's probabilities for the side it prefers at the market line (pushes excluded), next to the market's no-vig probability. Green = spread edge and cover probability (brighter as it grows: 2–4, 4–6, 6+ pts; 53–56%, 56–60%, 60%+); teal = Over, light blue = Under; gray = market reference values. Win probability includes the simulated tie; the moneyline comparison excludes ties because books refund them. Theoretical EV is in each game's expanded view only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation.

2026 Week 8 game projections

Games

IND @ JAX

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MIN @ DET

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TEN @ CIN

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LV @ NYJ

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ATL @ TB

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LAC @ LA

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CAR @ GB

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KC @ DEN

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CLE @ PIT

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ARI @ DAL

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PHI @ WAS

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CHI @ SEA

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BAL @ BUF

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NE @ MIA

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