Research model, not a validated betting model. Scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities come from game-projection-v1.2 using football data only (nflverse play-by-play, injuries, starters, weather). Sportsbook lines are compared afterward and are never inputs. The official projection for each game is the latest one made before kickoff; it is locked at kickoff and graded. Prospective tracking started 2026 Week 7.

2026 Week 7 game projections

14 games · 14 with a projection · loaded Sat, Nov 7, 7:28 PM CT

Sportsbook lines: updated Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT

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Last model update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:46 PM CT 2 d ago

Last sportsbook line update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT 2 d ago

Matchup		Spread				Total				Win		Confidence
Game	Projected score	Fair	Market	Edge	Cover %	Fair	Market	Edge	O/U %	Win %	Moneyline	Reliability	Status
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT	SF 29.8ATL 23.3 Final SF 20 – ATL 29	SF -6.06	SF -2.5 9 books	SF +3.6	65.4% SF -2.5 market 51.2%	52.5	49.5	Over 3.0 pts	59.1% Over 49.5 market 51.1%	SF70.3% ATL29.3% tie 0.4%	ATL +130 SF -142 ATL no-vig 42.9%	MEDIUM SF: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Thu, Oct 22, 7:15 PM CT	NE 25.6CHI 24.0 Final NE 24 – CHI 30	NE -2.54	CHI -3 9 books	NE +5.5	64.7% NE +3 market 50.9%	49.2	50.5	Under 1.3 pts	53.6% Under 50.5 market 48.6%	NE55.4% CHI44.2% tie 0.4%	CHI -147 NE +136 CHI no-vig 58.3%	LOW NE: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT	NYG 19.3HOU 26.0 Final NYG 27 – HOU 21	HOU -6.3	HOU -10.5 9 books	NYG +4.2	63.9% NYG +10.5 market 50.2%	44.5	42.5	Over 2.0 pts	57.4% Over 42.5 market 51.1%	HOU70.5% NYG29.1% tie 0.4%	HOU -470 NYG +400 HOU no-vig 80.2%	LOW NYG: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Mon, Oct 26, 7:15 PM CT	DAL 27.6PHI 18.2 Final DAL 38 – PHI 21	DAL -8.41	DAL -4.5 9 books	DAL +3.9	63.6% DAL -4.5 market 50.0%	45.2	44	Over 1.2 pts	53.8% Over 44 market 50.0%	DAL76.7% PHI23.0% tie 0.3%	PHI +190 DAL -205 PHI no-vig 33.6%	LOW DAL: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT	IND 19.8MIN 23.2 Final IND 10 – MIN 16	MIN -3.38	MIN -7 9 books	IND +3.6	63.4% IND +7 market 50.0%	42.6	41.5	Over 1.1 pts	52.4% Over 41.5 market 50.0%	MIN60.6% IND38.9% tie 0.5%	MIN -320 IND +270 MIN no-vig 73.5%	MEDIUM IND: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Oct 25, 7:20 PM CT	KC 23.0SEA 21.4 Final KC 3 – SEA 20	KC -2.43	SEA -3 9 books	KC +5.4	64.5% KC +3 market 51.3%	43.7	42.5	Over 1.2 pts	54.7% Over 42.5 market 49.6%	KC55.0% SEA44.5% tie 0.6%	SEA -143 KC +135 SEA no-vig 57.6%	MEDIUM KC: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT	MIA 20.3NYJ 21.3 Final MIA 28 – NYJ 25	NYJ -1.67	NYJ -3.5 9 books	MIA +1.8	59.0% MIA +3.5 market 48.9%	41.0	39.5	Over 1.5 pts	54.7% Over 39.5 market 48.9%	NYJ53.3% MIA46.2% tie 0.6%	NYJ -195 MIA +180 NYJ no-vig 65.0%	MEDIUM MIA: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CT	GB 25.5DET 26.8 Final GB 17 – DET 20	DET -2.07	DET -3.5 9 books	GB +1.4	58.0% GB +3.5 market 50.3%	51.5	55.5	Under 4.0 pts	61.1% Under 55.5 market 50.0%	DET54.1% GB45.4% tie 0.5%	DET -180 GB +170 DET no-vig 63.0%	MEDIUM GB: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Oct 25, 8:30 AM CT	PIT 24.3NO 22.4 Final PIT 16 – NO 10	PIT -2.56	PIT -3 9 books	NO +0.4	53.3% NO +3 market 49.8%	46.1	43.5	Over 2.6 pts	57.3% Over 43.5 market 48.5%	PIT55.6% NO44.0% tie 0.5%	NO +140 PIT -159 NO no-vig 40.9%	MEDIUM PIT: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Oct 25, 3:05 PM CT	DEN 25.3ARI 18.6 Final DEN 30 – ARI 16	DEN -6.31	DEN -4.5 9 books	DEN +1.8	56.3% DEN -4.5 market 50.0%	43.4	43.5	Under 0.1 pts	50.4% Under 43.5 market 50.0%	DEN71.1% ARI28.5% tie 0.4%	ARI +195 DEN -225 ARI no-vig 33.2%	MEDIUM ARI: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT	TB 19.9CAR 23.5 Final TB 43 – CAR 13	CAR -3.46	CAR -3 9 books	CAR +0.5	53.3% CAR -3 market 48.9%	42.9	44.5	Under 1.6 pts	55.7% Under 44.5 market 50.0%	CAR61.4% TB38.1% tie 0.5%	CAR -149 TB +140 CAR no-vig 59.0%	MEDIUM TB: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT	CLE 20.9TEN 18.4 Final CLE 27 – TEN 24	CLE -2.96	CLE -2.5 9 books	CLE +0.5	53.1% CLE -2.5 market 49.7%	38.7	37	Over 1.7 pts	55.7% Over 37 market 50.2%	CLE58.0% TEN41.5% tie 0.5%	TEN +118 CLE -130 TEN no-vig 44.9%	LOW CLE: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT	CIN 25.7BAL 21.9 Final CIN 35 – BAL 13	CIN -3.56	CIN -3 9 books	CIN +0.6	53.9% CIN -3 market 48.8%	47.0	46.5	Over 0.5 pts	52.1% Over 46.5 market 50.0%	CIN62.4% BAL37.1% tie 0.5%	BAL +135 CIN -148 BAL no-vig 41.8%	MEDIUM CIN: some availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CT	LA 26.8LV 22.5 Final LA 35 – LV 21	LA -3.99	LA -3.5 9 books	LA +0.5	51.6% LA -3.5 market 47.9%	48.8	48.5	Over 0.3 pts	50.8% Over 48.5 market 50.0%	LA63.8% LV35.7% tie 0.4%	LV +154 LA -168 LV no-vig 38.9%	MEDIUM LA: high availability uncertainty across regular players	Official · locked · final

SF @ ATL
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected SF 29.8 · ATL 23.3 · Final SF 20 – ATL 29
Spread
Model SF -6.06
Market SF -2.5
Edge SF +3.6
Cover 65.4% SF -2.5
Total
Fair 52.5
Market 49.5
Over 49.5 59.1%
Edge Over 3.0 pts
Win SF 70.3% · ATL 29.3%
NE @ CHI
Thu, Oct 22, 7:15 PM CT
LOW
Projected NE 25.6 · CHI 24.0 · Final NE 24 – CHI 30
Spread
Model NE -2.54
Market CHI -3
Edge NE +5.5
Cover 64.7% NE +3
Total
Fair 49.2
Market 50.5
Under 50.5 53.6%
Edge Under 1.3 pts
Win NE 55.4% · CHI 44.2%
NYG @ HOU
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT
LOW
Projected NYG 19.3 · HOU 26.0 · Final NYG 27 – HOU 21
Spread
Model HOU -6.3
Market HOU -10.5
Edge NYG +4.2
Cover 63.9% NYG +10.5
Total
Fair 44.5
Market 42.5
Over 42.5 57.4%
Edge Over 2.0 pts
Win HOU 70.5% · NYG 29.1%
DAL @ PHI
Mon, Oct 26, 7:15 PM CT
LOW
Projected DAL 27.6 · PHI 18.2 · Final DAL 38 – PHI 21
Spread
Model DAL -8.41
Market DAL -4.5
Edge DAL +3.9
Cover 63.6% DAL -4.5
Total
Fair 45.2
Market 44
Over 44 53.8%
Edge Over 1.2 pts
Win DAL 76.7% · PHI 23.0%
IND @ MIN
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected IND 19.8 · MIN 23.2 · Final IND 10 – MIN 16
Spread
Model MIN -3.38
Market MIN -7
Edge IND +3.6
Cover 63.4% IND +7
Total
Fair 42.6
Market 41.5
Over 41.5 52.4%
Edge Over 1.1 pts
Win MIN 60.6% · IND 38.9%
KC @ SEA
Sun, Oct 25, 7:20 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected KC 23.0 · SEA 21.4 · Final KC 3 – SEA 20
Spread
Model KC -2.43
Market SEA -3
Edge KC +5.4
Cover 64.5% KC +3
Total
Fair 43.7
Market 42.5
Over 42.5 54.7%
Edge Over 1.2 pts
Win KC 55.0% · SEA 44.5%
MIA @ NYJ
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected MIA 20.3 · NYJ 21.3 · Final MIA 28 – NYJ 25
Spread
Model NYJ -1.67
Market NYJ -3.5
Edge MIA +1.8
Cover 59.0% MIA +3.5
Total
Fair 41.0
Market 39.5
Over 39.5 54.7%
Edge Over 1.5 pts
Win NYJ 53.3% · MIA 46.2%
GB @ DET
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected GB 25.5 · DET 26.8 · Final GB 17 – DET 20
Spread
Model DET -2.07
Market DET -3.5
Edge GB +1.4
Cover 58.0% GB +3.5
Total
Fair 51.5
Market 55.5
Under 55.5 61.1%
Edge Under 4.0 pts
Win DET 54.1% · GB 45.4%
PIT @ NO
Sun, Oct 25, 8:30 AM CT
MEDIUM
Projected PIT 24.3 · NO 22.4 · Final PIT 16 – NO 10
Spread
Model PIT -2.56
Market PIT -3
Edge NO +0.4
Cover 53.3% NO +3
Total
Fair 46.1
Market 43.5
Over 43.5 57.3%
Edge Over 2.6 pts
Win PIT 55.6% · NO 44.0%
DEN @ ARI
Sun, Oct 25, 3:05 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected DEN 25.3 · ARI 18.6 · Final DEN 30 – ARI 16
Spread
Model DEN -6.31
Market DEN -4.5
Edge DEN +1.8
Cover 56.3% DEN -4.5
Total
Fair 43.4
Market 43.5
Under 43.5 50.4%
Edge Under 0.1 pts
Win DEN 71.1% · ARI 28.5%
TB @ CAR
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected TB 19.9 · CAR 23.5 · Final TB 43 – CAR 13
Spread
Model CAR -3.46
Market CAR -3
Edge CAR +0.5
Cover 53.3% CAR -3
Total
Fair 42.9
Market 44.5
Under 44.5 55.7%
Edge Under 1.6 pts
Win CAR 61.4% · TB 38.1%
CLE @ TEN
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT
LOW
Projected CLE 20.9 · TEN 18.4 · Final CLE 27 – TEN 24
Spread
Model CLE -2.96
Market CLE -2.5
Edge CLE +0.5
Cover 53.1% CLE -2.5
Total
Fair 38.7
Market 37
Over 37 55.7%
Edge Over 1.7 pts
Win CLE 58.0% · TEN 41.5%
CIN @ BAL
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected CIN 25.7 · BAL 21.9 · Final CIN 35 – BAL 13
Spread
Model CIN -3.56
Market CIN -3
Edge CIN +0.6
Cover 53.9% CIN -3
Total
Fair 47.0
Market 46.5
Over 46.5 52.1%
Edge Over 0.5 pts
Win CIN 62.4% · BAL 37.1%
LA @ LV
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CT
MEDIUM
Projected LA 26.8 · LV 22.5 · Final LA 35 – LV 21
Spread
Model LA -3.99
Market LA -3.5
Edge LA +0.5
Cover 51.6% LA -3.5
Total
Fair 48.8
Market 48.5
Over 48.5 50.8%
Edge Over 0.3 pts
Win LA 63.8% · LV 35.7%

Edge = the gap between the model's fair line and the market consensus, shown toward the side the model rates higher than the market does (calculation unchanged). Model cover % and Model O/U % are the model's probabilities for the side it prefers at the market line (pushes excluded), next to the market's no-vig probability. Green = spread edge and cover probability (brighter as it grows: 2–4, 4–6, 6+ pts; 53–56%, 56–60%, 60%+); teal = Over, light blue = Under; gray = market reference values. Win probability includes the simulated tie; the moneyline comparison excludes ties because books refund them. Theoretical EV is in each game's expanded view only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation.

2026 Week 7 game projections

Games

SF @ ATL

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NE @ CHI

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NYG @ HOU

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DAL @ PHI

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IND @ MIN

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KC @ SEA

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MIA @ NYJ

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GB @ DET

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PIT @ NO

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DEN @ ARI

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TB @ CAR

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CLE @ TEN

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CIN @ BAL

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LA @ LV

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