Research model, not a validated betting model. Scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities come from game-projection-v1.2 using football data only (nflverse play-by-play, injuries, starters, weather). Sportsbook lines are compared afterward and are never inputs. The official projection for each game is the latest one made before kickoff; it is locked at kickoff and graded. Prospective tracking started 2026 Week 7.

2026 Week 6 game projections

14 games · 0 with a projection · loaded Sat, Nov 7, 7:40 PM CT

Sportsbook lines: not available for this week yet.

← Week 5 Week 7 →

Last model update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:46 PM CT 2 d ago
Last sportsbook line update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT 2 d ago

Games

14 gamesNo market lines yet, so games are in kickoff order.
MatchupSpreadTotalWinConfidence
GameProjected scoreFairMarketEdgeCover %FairMarketEdgeO/U %Win %MoneylineReliabilityStatus
Thu, Oct 15, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 18, 8:30 AM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 18, 3:05 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 18, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 18, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 18, 7:20 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Mon, Oct 19, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT

  1. SEA @ DEN

    Thu, Oct 15, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final SEA 14 – DEN 17

  2. HOU @ JAX

    Sun, Oct 18, 8:30 AM CT
    No projection yet · Final HOU 34 – JAX 31

  3. CHI @ ATL

    Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final CHI 31 – ATL 23

  4. BAL @ CLE

    Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final BAL 10 – CLE 13

  5. TEN @ IND

    Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final TEN 26 – IND 20

  6. NYJ @ NE

    Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final NYJ 19 – NE 26

  7. NO @ NYG

    Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final NO 34 – NYG 27

  8. CAR @ PHI

    Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final CAR 25 – PHI 14

  9. PIT @ TB

    Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final PIT 26 – TB 19

  10. ARI @ LA

    Sun, Oct 18, 3:05 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final ARI 18 – LA 16

  11. LAC @ KC

    Sun, Oct 18, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final LAC 6 – KC 22

  12. BUF @ LV

    Sun, Oct 18, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final BUF 33 – LV 30

  13. DAL @ GB

    Sun, Oct 18, 7:20 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final DAL 13 – GB 23

  14. WAS @ SF

    Mon, Oct 19, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final WAS 17 – SF 23

Edge = the gap between the model's fair line and the market consensus, shown toward the side the model rates higher than the market does (calculation unchanged). Model cover % and Model O/U % are the model's probabilities for the side it prefers at the market line (pushes excluded), next to the market's no-vig probability. Green = spread edge and cover probability (brighter as it grows: 2–4, 4–6, 6+ pts; 53–56%, 56–60%, 60%+); teal = Over, light blue = Under; gray = market reference values. Win probability includes the simulated tie; the moneyline comparison excludes ties because books refund them. Theoretical EV is in each game's expanded view only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation.