Research model, not a validated betting model. Scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities come from game-projection-v1.2 using football data only (nflverse play-by-play, injuries, starters, weather). Sportsbook lines are compared afterward and are never inputs. The official projection for each game is the latest one made before kickoff; it is locked at kickoff and graded. Prospective tracking started 2026 Week 7.

2026 Week 5 game projections

15 games · 0 with a projection · loaded Sat, Nov 7, 7:48 PM CT

Sportsbook lines: not available for this week yet.

← Week 4 Week 6 →

Last model update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:46 PM CT 2 d ago
Last sportsbook line update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT 2 d ago

Games

15 gamesNo market lines yet, so games are in kickoff order.
MatchupSpreadTotalWinConfidence
GameProjected scoreFairMarketEdgeCover %FairMarketEdgeO/U %Win %MoneylineReliabilityStatus
Thu, Oct 8, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 8:30 AM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 3:05 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 11, 7:20 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Mon, Oct 12, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT

  1. TB @ DAL

    Thu, Oct 8, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final TB 24 – DAL 16

  2. PHI @ JAX

    Sun, Oct 11, 8:30 AM CT
    No projection yet · Final PHI 17 – JAX 19

  3. CHI @ GB

    Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final CHI 7 – GB 31

  4. CIN @ MIA

    Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final CIN 31 – MIA 24

  5. LV @ NE

    Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final LV 17 – NE 45

  6. MIN @ NO

    Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final MIN 23 – NO 13

  7. CLE @ NYJ

    Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final CLE 12 – NYJ 17

  8. IND @ PIT

    Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final IND 22 – PIT 34

  9. HOU @ TEN

    Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final HOU 26 – TEN 3

  10. NYG @ WAS

    Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final NYG 27 – WAS 27

  11. DEN @ LAC

    Sun, Oct 11, 3:05 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final DEN 23 – LAC 17

  12. DET @ ARI

    Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final DET 45 – ARI 21

  13. SF @ SEA

    Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final SF 32 – SEA 29

  14. BAL @ ATL

    Sun, Oct 11, 7:20 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final BAL 30 – ATL 23

  15. BUF @ LA

    Mon, Oct 12, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final BUF 37 – LA 34

Edge = the gap between the model's fair line and the market consensus, shown toward the side the model rates higher than the market does (calculation unchanged). Model cover % and Model O/U % are the model's probabilities for the side it prefers at the market line (pushes excluded), next to the market's no-vig probability. Green = spread edge and cover probability (brighter as it grows: 2–4, 4–6, 6+ pts; 53–56%, 56–60%, 60%+); teal = Over, light blue = Under; gray = market reference values. Win probability includes the simulated tie; the moneyline comparison excludes ties because books refund them. Theoretical EV is in each game's expanded view only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation.