Research model, not a validated betting model. Scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities come from game-projection-v1.2 using football data only (nflverse play-by-play, injuries, starters, weather). Sportsbook lines are compared afterward and are never inputs. The official projection for each game is the latest one made before kickoff; it is locked at kickoff and graded. Prospective tracking started 2026 Week 7.

2026 Week 4 game projections

16 games · 0 with a projection · loaded Sat, Nov 7, 8:02 PM CT

Sportsbook lines: not available for this week yet.

← Week 3 Week 5 →

Last model update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:46 PM CT 2 d ago
Last sportsbook line update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT 2 d ago

Games

16 gamesNo market lines yet, so games are in kickoff order.
MatchupSpreadTotalWinConfidence
GameProjected scoreFairMarketEdgeCover %FairMarketEdgeO/U %Win %MoneylineReliabilityStatus
Thu, Oct 1, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 8:30 AM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 3:05 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Oct 4, 7:20 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Mon, Oct 5, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT

  1. PIT @ CLE

    Thu, Oct 1, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final PIT 24 – CLE 27

  2. IND @ WAS

    Sun, Oct 4, 8:30 AM CT
    No projection yet · Final IND 30 – WAS 13

  3. TEN @ BAL

    Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final TEN 18 – BAL 24

  4. NE @ BUF

    Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final NE 29 – BUF 26

  5. NYJ @ CHI

    Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final NYJ 12 – CHI 23

  6. JAX @ CIN

    Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final JAX 22 – CIN 17

  7. DAL @ HOU

    Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final DAL 34 – HOU 30

  8. ARI @ NYG

    Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final ARI 24 – NYG 36

  9. LA @ PHI

    Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final LA 24 – PHI 20

  10. GB @ TB

    Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final GB 17 – TB 14

  11. MIA @ MIN

    Sun, Oct 4, 3:05 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final MIA 10 – MIN 15

  12. KC @ LV

    Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final KC 30 – LV 27

  13. LAC @ SEA

    Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final LAC 23 – SEA 30

  14. DEN @ SF

    Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final DEN 14 – SF 24

  15. DET @ CAR

    Sun, Oct 4, 7:20 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final DET 26 – CAR 32

  16. ATL @ NO

    Mon, Oct 5, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final ATL 45 – NO 24

Edge = the gap between the model's fair line and the market consensus, shown toward the side the model rates higher than the market does (calculation unchanged). Model cover % and Model O/U % are the model's probabilities for the side it prefers at the market line (pushes excluded), next to the market's no-vig probability. Green = spread edge and cover probability (brighter as it grows: 2–4, 4–6, 6+ pts; 53–56%, 56–60%, 60%+); teal = Over, light blue = Under; gray = market reference values. Win probability includes the simulated tie; the moneyline comparison excludes ties because books refund them. Theoretical EV is in each game's expanded view only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation.