Research model, not a validated betting model. Scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities come from game-projection-v1.2 using football data only (nflverse play-by-play, injuries, starters, weather). Sportsbook lines are compared afterward and are never inputs. The official projection for each game is the latest one made before kickoff; it is locked at kickoff and graded. Prospective tracking started 2026 Week 7.

2026 Week 3 game projections

16 games · 0 with a projection · loaded Sat, Nov 7, 8:12 PM CT

Sportsbook lines: not available for this week yet.

← Week 2 Week 4 →

Last model update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:46 PM CT 2 d ago
Last sportsbook line update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT 2 d ago

Games

16 gamesNo market lines yet, so games are in kickoff order.
MatchupSpreadTotalWinConfidence
GameProjected scoreFairMarketEdgeCover %FairMarketEdgeO/U %Win %MoneylineReliabilityStatus
Thu, Sep 24, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 27, 7:20 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Mon, Sep 28, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT

  1. ATL @ GB

    Thu, Sep 24, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final ATL 35 – GB 14

  2. LAC @ BUF

    Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final LAC 16 – BUF 24

  3. CAR @ CLE

    Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final CAR 18 – CLE 21

  4. NYJ @ DET

    Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final NYJ 24 – DET 31

  5. HOU @ IND

    Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final HOU 17 – IND 19

  6. NE @ JAX

    Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final NE 6 – JAX 35

  7. KC @ MIA

    Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final KC 24 – MIA 10

  8. TEN @ NYG

    Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final TEN 7 – NYG 12

  9. CIN @ PIT

    Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final CIN 27 – PIT 30

  10. SEA @ WAS

    Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final SEA 31 – WAS 33

  11. ARI @ SF

    Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final ARI 30 – SF 36

  12. MIN @ TB

    Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final MIN 23 – TB 16

  13. BAL @ DAL

    Sun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final BAL 34 – DAL 31

  14. LV @ NO

    Sun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final LV 35 – NO 27

  15. LA @ DEN

    Sun, Sep 27, 7:20 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final LA 26 – DEN 30

  16. PHI @ CHI

    Mon, Sep 28, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final PHI 7 – CHI 27

Edge = the gap between the model's fair line and the market consensus, shown toward the side the model rates higher than the market does (calculation unchanged). Model cover % and Model O/U % are the model's probabilities for the side it prefers at the market line (pushes excluded), next to the market's no-vig probability. Green = spread edge and cover probability (brighter as it grows: 2–4, 4–6, 6+ pts; 53–56%, 56–60%, 60%+); teal = Over, light blue = Under; gray = market reference values. Win probability includes the simulated tie; the moneyline comparison excludes ties because books refund them. Theoretical EV is in each game's expanded view only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation.