Research model, not a validated betting model. Scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities come from game-projection-v1.2 using football data only (nflverse play-by-play, injuries, starters, weather). Sportsbook lines are compared afterward and are never inputs. The official projection for each game is the latest one made before kickoff; it is locked at kickoff and graded. Prospective tracking started 2026 Week 7.

2026 Week 11 game projections

13 games · 0 with a projection · loaded Fri, Nov 6, 6:37 PM CT

Sportsbook lines: not available for this week yet.

← Week 10 Week 12 →

Last model update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:46 PM CT 1 d ago
Last sportsbook line update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT 1 d ago

Games

13 gamesNo market lines yet, so games are in kickoff order.
MatchupSpreadTotalWinConfidence
GameProjected scoreFairMarketEdgeCover %FairMarketEdgeO/U %Win %MoneylineReliabilityStatus
Thu, Nov 19, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 22, 3:05 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 22, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 22, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 22, 7:20 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Mon, Nov 23, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT

  1. IND @ HOU

    Thu, Nov 19, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet

  2. MIA @ BUF

    Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  3. BAL @ CAR

    Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  4. NO @ CHI

    Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  5. TEN @ DAL

    Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  6. TB @ DET

    Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  7. ARI @ KC

    Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  8. JAX @ NYG

    Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  9. NYJ @ LAC

    Sun, Nov 22, 3:05 PM CT
    No projection yet

  10. LV @ DEN

    Sun, Nov 22, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet

  11. PIT @ PHI

    Sun, Nov 22, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet

  12. MIN @ SF

    Sun, Nov 22, 7:20 PM CT
    No projection yet

  13. CIN @ WAS

    Mon, Nov 23, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet

Edge = the gap between the model's fair line and the market consensus, shown toward the side the model rates higher than the market does (calculation unchanged). Model cover % and Model O/U % are the model's probabilities for the side it prefers at the market line (pushes excluded), next to the market's no-vig probability. Green = spread edge and cover probability (brighter as it grows: 2–4, 4–6, 6+ pts; 53–56%, 56–60%, 60%+); teal = Over, light blue = Under; gray = market reference values. Win probability includes the simulated tie; the moneyline comparison excludes ties because books refund them. Theoretical EV is in each game's expanded view only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation.