Research model, not a validated betting model. Scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities come from game-projection-v1.2 using football data only (nflverse play-by-play, injuries, starters, weather). Sportsbook lines are compared afterward and are never inputs. The official projection for each game is the latest one made before kickoff; it is locked at kickoff and graded. Prospective tracking started 2026 Week 7.

2026 Week 10 game projections

14 games · 0 with a projection · loaded Fri, Nov 6, 6:27 PM CT

Sportsbook lines: updated Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT

← Week 9 Week 11 →

Last model update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:46 PM CT 1 d ago
Last sportsbook line update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT 1 d ago

Games

14 gamesNo market lines yet, so games are in kickoff order.
MatchupSpreadTotalWinConfidence
GameProjected scoreFairMarketEdgeCover %FairMarketEdgeO/U %Win %MoneylineReliabilityStatus
Thu, Nov 12, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 15, 8:30 AM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 15, 3:05 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 15, 3:05 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 15, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Nov 15, 7:20 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Mon, Nov 16, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT

  1. WAS @ NYG

    Thu, Nov 12, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet

  2. NE @ DET

    Sun, Nov 15, 8:30 AM CT
    No projection yet

  3. KC @ ATL

    Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  4. HOU @ CLE

    Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  5. MIN @ GB

    Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  6. MIA @ IND

    Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  7. CAR @ NO

    Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  8. BUF @ NYJ

    Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  9. JAX @ TEN

    Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet

  10. LA @ ARI

    Sun, Nov 15, 3:05 PM CT
    No projection yet

  11. SEA @ LV

    Sun, Nov 15, 3:05 PM CT
    No projection yet

  12. SF @ DAL

    Sun, Nov 15, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet

  13. PIT @ CIN

    Sun, Nov 15, 7:20 PM CT
    No projection yet

  14. LAC @ BAL

    Mon, Nov 16, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet

Edge = the gap between the model's fair line and the market consensus, shown toward the side the model rates higher than the market does (calculation unchanged). Model cover % and Model O/U % are the model's probabilities for the side it prefers at the market line (pushes excluded), next to the market's no-vig probability. Green = spread edge and cover probability (brighter as it grows: 2–4, 4–6, 6+ pts; 53–56%, 56–60%, 60%+); teal = Over, light blue = Under; gray = market reference values. Win probability includes the simulated tie; the moneyline comparison excludes ties because books refund them. Theoretical EV is in each game's expanded view only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation.