Research model, not a validated betting model. Scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities come from game-projection-v1.2 using football data only (nflverse play-by-play, injuries, starters, weather). Sportsbook lines are compared afterward and are never inputs. The official projection for each game is the latest one made before kickoff; it is locked at kickoff and graded. Prospective tracking started 2026 Week 7.

2026 Week 1 game projections

16 games · 0 with a projection · loaded Sat, Nov 7, 8:34 PM CT

Sportsbook lines: not available for this week yet.

Week 2 →

Last model update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:46 PM CT 2 d ago
Last sportsbook line update: Thu, Nov 5, 4:18 PM CT 2 d ago

Games

16 gamesNo market lines yet, so games are in kickoff order.
MatchupSpreadTotalWinConfidence
GameProjected scoreFairMarketEdgeCover %FairMarketEdgeO/U %Win %MoneylineReliabilityStatus
Wed, Sep 9, 7:20 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Thu, Sep 10, 7:35 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Sun, Sep 13, 7:20 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT
Mon, Sep 14, 7:15 PM CT
No projection yet · projections run Tue 7 PM, Thu 9 AM, Sat 7 PM and Sun 10:30 AM CT

  1. NE @ SEA

    Wed, Sep 9, 7:20 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final NE 10 – SEA 13

  2. SF @ LA

    Thu, Sep 10, 7:35 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final SF 27 – LA 7

  3. CHI @ CAR

    Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final CHI 59 – CAR 37

  4. TB @ CIN

    Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final TB 27 – CIN 33

  5. NO @ DET

    Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final NO 30 – DET 31

  6. BUF @ HOU

    Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final BUF 36 – HOU 31

  7. BAL @ IND

    Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final BAL 41 – IND 23

  8. CLE @ JAX

    Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final CLE 10 – JAX 34

  9. ATL @ PIT

    Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final ATL 13 – PIT 20

  10. NYJ @ TEN

    Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final NYJ 23 – TEN 10

  11. ARI @ LAC

    Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final ARI 26 – LAC 14

  12. MIA @ LV

    Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final MIA 13 – LV 27

  13. GB @ MIN

    Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final GB 22 – MIN 39

  14. WAS @ PHI

    Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final WAS 22 – PHI 24

  15. DAL @ NYG

    Sun, Sep 13, 7:20 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final DAL 20 – NYG 28

  16. DEN @ KC

    Mon, Sep 14, 7:15 PM CT
    No projection yet · Final DEN 10 – KC 31

Edge = the gap between the model's fair line and the market consensus, shown toward the side the model rates higher than the market does (calculation unchanged). Model cover % and Model O/U % are the model's probabilities for the side it prefers at the market line (pushes excluded), next to the market's no-vig probability. Green = spread edge and cover probability (brighter as it grows: 2–4, 4–6, 6+ pts; 53–56%, 56–60%, 60%+); teal = Over, light blue = Under; gray = market reference values. Win probability includes the simulated tie; the moneyline comparison excludes ties because books refund them. Theoretical EV is in each game's expanded view only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation.